Kürzlich fragte Barry Ritholtz in seinem Blog “Who is the GOAT?”, wobei mit GOAT der “Greatest of All Time” unter den Investoren gemeint war. Seine Antwort lautete nicht Warren Buffett sondern Peter Lynch:
In terms of pure stock-picking, my choice for the greatest long-term track record would be Peter Lynch. I had the privilege of having a fireside chat with Lynch, now Vice Chairman of Fidelity, at last week’s MIT Sloan annual investment conference. We sat down for 40 minutes – not nearly enough time – to discuss his many investing, stock picking and market timing ideas. None of those ideas would be unfamiliar to anyone who has read any of his 3 best-selling books.
Over the course of 13-years, he turned Fidelity’s Magellan fund into the world’s best known fund. Along the way, he changed how we think about stock picking, invented GARP (Growth at a reasonable price), encouraged millions of individuals to manage their own portfolios, and changed what it meant to be a fund investor.
Ich kann dem durchaus zustimmen und finde, dass man immer wieder die beiden wesentlichen Bücher von Lynch studieren sollte, nämlich One Up On Wallstreet und Beating the Street. Beide bieten eine unglaubliche Zahl an guten Ratschlägen für (private) Investoren, die selbst nach 30 Jahren immer noch ihre Gültigkeit besitzen. Im folgenden möchte ich daher meine stichwortartige Zusammenfassung von One Up On Wallstreet wiedergeben. Man möge mir das Deutsch-Englische-Kauderwelsch verzichten, aber das Buch ist im Original in Englisch verfasst und so habe ich meine Gedanken damals einfach teilweise in Englisch notiert:
Zusammenfassung: Lynch, Peter: One Up On Wall Street, Millenium Ed. 2000
Introduction:
Optimismus: „The bearish argument always sounds intelligent” – doch Aktien waren langfristig immer gute Investments, selbst in Zeiten, in denen sie überbewertet waren.
Fokus: Der Aktienkurs ist die am wenigsten hilfreiche Information. Am wichtigsten sind die Unternehmensgewinne: „The one number to watch“.
Do it yourself: Der typische Amateurinvestor hat Vorteile gegenüber dem Profiinvestor.
Geduld: Die typische „Große Gewinner-Aktie“ im Lynch-Portfolio benötigt 3 bis 10 Jahre um ihr Potenzial voll zu realisieren.
Preparing to Invest:
Investing is art not sciences. Overquantification does not make sense.
Passing the Entry Test:
Do I own a house?
Do I need the money otherwise?
Do I have the personal qualities? (stomach downturns, ignore short-term fluctuations)
Picking winners
Use your personal edge (industry knowledge, shopping…)
Discovery is not buy signal.
The six categories / stories:
Slow growers – generous dividends
Stalwarts – look for good opportunities to buy them relatively cheap, they offer also recession protection
Fast growers – small, aggressive new enterprises that grow 20-25% a year. Not necessarily part of a fast growing industry. Look for the ones that have good balance sheets and are making substantial profits.
The cyclicals – automobiles, airlines, tires, steel, chemicals. Buy them at the right point of the cycle.
Turnarounds – sell when it is back to its old levels.
Asset plays – look for assets like pile of cash, real estate etc.
The perfect stock:
It sounds dull.
It does something dull.
It does something disagreeable (tobacco, liquor, gambling…).
It’s a spinoff.
The institutions don’t want it and the analysts don’t follow it.
There is something depressing about it (funeral services…).
It’s a no-growth industry.
It’s got a niche.
People have to keep buying it (household staples!).
It’s a user not a vendor of technology.
The insiders are buyers (don’t worry about insider selling).
The company is buying back shares.
Stocks to avoid
Avoid hottest stocks in hottest industry.
Beware the “next something” like the “next Walmart”.
Avoid “Diworsefications”.
Beware the “whisper stock”.
Getting the Facts
Visit company, call company, get data from internet, get feel for company (“Rich earnings and cheap headquarters is a great combination”), Kicking the tires (go to stores, talk to customers).
Earnings: Look at the P/E, avoid excessive P/Es.
Find the long-term earnings growth rate of the company, add the dividend yield and divide by the p/e ratio: Less than 1 is poor, 2 or higher is GREAT!
Cash:
Increasing cash position?
Companies overall cash should be higher than long-term debt.
Net cash: Cash – Long-term debt.
Debt:
Debt-to-Equity: should be at least 0,25 or LOWER.
Bank debt is worst.
Funded debt is best (bonds with long maturities).
Dividends:
If it is not a fast grower: a good sign, particularly if they have paid through recessions.
Cash flow:
Look only at free cash flow.
Could be an asset play: Loads of fcf and the business is gong nowhere.
Inventories:
When inventories grow faster than sales it is a RED FLAG.
If a company has been depressed and inventories are are beginning to be depleted it is a good sign.
Pension plans:
Before investing in turn around check if this company has not an overwhelming pension obligation.
Growth rate:
All that counts is earnings growth.
Better to have a 20%-grower at P/E 20 than a 10% grower at P/E 10.
Pre-Tax-Profit: The EBT-Margin is the one Profit-Margin to look at.
Rechecking the Story: Every few months re-check the company story…
When to Sell
A slow grower: losing market share, diworsefication, deteriorating balance sheet.
Stalwart: Relatively high P/E, new products are doing so so or badly.
Cyclical: obvious signal: inventories are building up, can’t compete with foreign competition.
Fast grower: no more growth opportunities, growth slowing down, excessive P/E (but do not worry about slightly higher P/E).
Turn around: Debt is rising again (after being reduced for several quarters), P/E is inflated.
Asset play: Wait until Private Equity shows up.
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